Betting on the Correct Score: Thrill-Seeking or Real Strategy with Value?
The correct score market is one of the most popular among recreational bettors. It offers huge odds, a serious dose of adrenaline, and the feeling that you can “predict the match” with a single bet. Wagering on 2-1, 1-3, or 0-0 turns every minute of the game into a personal drama.
But… is it profitable? Does betting on the exact score make sense if your goal is to win money consistently?
Let’s break it down with a clear head.
How Does the Correct Score Market Work?
This type of bet is all about predicting the exact final score of a sporting event, most commonly in football. Bookmakers offer a list of possible outcomes and assign odds to each one.
For example, in a Champions League match:
1-0 → odds 7.50
2-1 → odds 9.00
0-2 → odds 13.00
3-2 → odds 26.00
1-3 → odds 21.00
2-2 → odds 15.00
Naturally, these odds are much higher than in Win/Draw/Win or Double Chance markets, because the probability of getting the exact score right is significantly lower.
What’s the Problem with Betting on the Correct Score?
The main issue with this market is the systematic overestimation of risk by bookmakers. This means that, in general, the odds are lower than their fair value—and if you bet on correct scores without a clear edge, you’ll lose money in the long run.
Why?
Bookies apply extra margin on niche, low-liquidity markets like this. They know most people bet on these outcomes based on gut feeling or for excitement, not statistical value.
Also:
Volatility is high: You might lose 15 times in a row before hitting one.
Expected profitability is negative unless you spot pricing mistakes.
It’s nearly impossible to manually identify value, due to the sheer number of scoreline combinations.
When Does It Make Sense to Bet on the Correct Score?
This is where the key concept comes in: value betting.
A correct score bet only makes sense when the offered odds are higher than the real probability of that outcome happening. In other words, if there is positive expected value.
For example:
The bookmaker offers odds of 13.00 for a 1-2 scoreline
After analyzing stats, models, and market trends, you estimate a 10% real chance of that outcome
Fair odds would be 10.00 (1 / 0.10)
Getting 13.00 means you’re betting with value
The problem? Doing this analysis manually isn’t viable. Comparing odds across bookmakers, estimating real probabilities, and acting fast requires professional tools.
How to Find That Value Without Being a Robot? With AI
To detect mispriced odds in markets like correct score, you need advanced automation. And that’s where BetOven comes in.
BetOven is an AI system that:
✅ Scans thousands of markets in real time ✅ Detects overpriced odds caused by bookmaker error ✅ Calculates if there’s a value bet and places the bet automatically ✅ Does all of this without emotion, impulse, or human error
While the correct score market isn’t a typical target for surebets or hedging strategies, there are occasional value bet opportunities—especially when the market becomes misaligned due to lineup changes, odds movements, or liquidity shifts.
BetOven is the number 1 automated sports arbitrage software, specifically designed to automate the betting process while ensuring the maximization of our profits, both in surebets and valuebets. It is such a powerful tool that it can detect errors made by bookmakers in real-time when setting their odds, and automatically place bets on these errors.
In the following video, you can see how BetOven’s AI works and how you can try it for free to maximize your profits in sports betting:
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