What is Poisson Distribution and how to use it in sports betting?
What is the Poisson Distribution ?
The Poisson Distribution is a probabilistic model that allows estimating the probability of a team scoring a specific number of goals in a match, based on historical data such as the average goals scored and conceded by each team. This model is commonly used to calculate the probability of certain events occurring during a game, such as goals in a football match.
To use this model, bettors collect historical data from previous matches and calculate the probability of each possible score. They then compare these estimates with the odds offered by bookmakers to find value betting opportunities.
This means that if a team is a clear favourite, it is assigned a negative handicap, while the underdog is given a positive handicap to level the playing field.
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The Poisson Distribution Formula
The formula for the Poisson Distribution is as follows:
Where:
- P(X=k)is the probability that exactly k events (in this case, goals) occur during a time interval (the match).
- λ is the average rate of events (goals) per time interval (for example, the average number of goals a team scores per match in a season or a specific period).
- k is the number of goals we are trying to predict (the event whose outcome we are looking for).
- e is the mathematical constant Euler’s number (approximately 2.71828).
- k!is the factorial of k, which means the product of all integers from 1 to k.
Explanation of the Formula
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Average Goal Rate (λ): The average rate λ is the number of goals a team scores on average in a match. This value is obtained by calculating the average number of goals from the team’s previous matches or from a particular season.
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Expected Number of Goals (k): This is the exact number of goals you want to predict. It can be any integer (for example, 0, 1, 2, 3, etc.).
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Probability Calculation: By substituting the values of λand
k into the formula, you get the probability that the team will score exactlyk goals in the next match. This probability can be used to assess the odds offered by bookmakers and determine if there is value in the bets.
Practical example:
Let’s imagine that a team has scored an average of 1.5 goals per match in the last 10 games. Using this data, we can calculate the probability of the team scoring exactly 2 goals in their next match. In this case:
- (average goals per match)
- (number of goals we want to predict)
Substituting these values into the formula:
This calculation gives us the probability that the team will score exactly 2 goals in their next match, according to the Poisson Distribution.
Does it really make sense to use the Poisson Distribution for sports betting?
Although the Poisson Distribution is useful for estimating the probabilities of certain outcomes, it has several limitations in the field of sports betting:
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It’s not about doing calculations and past analysis: To win in sports betting in the long run, as we’ve demonstrated many times with BetHunter, it’s not just about performing mathematical calculations and statistics based on the past. It’s also not about fundamental analysis where we study factors like team form or player performance. 👉 What really allows you to win in sports betting is finding real-time odds that are overvalued by the bookmakers. If we identify those overestimated odds, we can take advantage of those errors to place value bets and generate sustainable profits.
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It’s impossible to find these errors manually: Contrary to what many believe, it’s extremely difficult to manually detect these errors in odds to make surebets or value bets. Bookmakers constantly adjust their odds, and trying to find opportunities on your own is inefficient and unrealistic.
The only way is to use automated software that performs sports arbitrage automatically: To exploit these errors effectively, you need software that analyzes thousands of odds in real time and automatically detects where there are profitable opportunities. BetOven does exactly that: it scans bookmakers in milliseconds, identifies poorly adjusted odds, and allows you to take advantage of them before they are corrected. Thanks to this automation, you can maximize your profits without relying on limited statistical models or inefficient manual calculations.
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