What is a sports betting odds

How to find a good odds?

If you’ve been betting on sports for any length of time you’ve probably heard the term ‘odds’, but do you know exactly what it means, how it affects your betting and why it’s so relevant?

Odds are a fundamental element of sports betting. Not only do they determine how much money you can win on a bet, but they also reflect the implied probability of a certain event happening. Understanding how they work is key to improving your betting strategy.

What is a sports betting odds?

Sports betting odds represent the factor by which your bet will be multiplied in the event of a successful outcome. They are set by bookmakers based on multiple factors, such as statistical information, the amount of money wagered on each outcome and real-time market adjustments.

For example, if the odds are 2.00, this means that for every euro you bet, you will win two euros if your bet is correct.

Types of sports betting odds

There are different odds formats depending on the country and bookmaker. The main types are:

Decimal odds: Used in Europe and Latin America. They express directly how much the initial bet is multiplied (Example: 1.80, 2.50, 3.75).
Fractional odds: Common in the UK. They are presented in fractions (Example: 5/2, 3/1, 7/4) and represent the net win in relation to the initial stake.
American odds: These are used in the United States. They are presented with a positive or negative sign (Example: +200 means that with €100 you win €200; -150 means that you have to bet €150 to win €100).

Relationship between odds, probability and gain

The value of an odds reflects the implied probability of an event occurring according to each bookmaker (more on this in the next paragraph). The lower the odds, the higher the probability of the event happening according to the bookmaker. Similarly, higher odds indicate less likely events, but with a higher potential profit.

To calculate the implied probability of a decimal share, the formula is:

Probability (%) = (1 / odds) × 100

Example:

A odds of 2.00 represents a 50% probability (1 / 2.00 × 100 = 50%).
A odds of 4.00 represents a probability of 25% (1 / 4.00 × 100 = 25%).

If you can identify odds that are overvalued or undervalued in relation to the actual probability of the event, you will be able to find more profitable betting opportunities. But let’s see more about this…

Think like a pro: Does the odds really reflect the probability of the event occurring?

Let’s get to the heart of the matter, as this concept is something that only betting professionals know about and will help us find the best betting opportunities.

As mentioned above, it is true that the value of an odds reflects the implied probability of an event occurring, but this is according to the subjectivity of each bookmaker. If the bookmaker makes a mistake in setting an odds, that odds no longer correctly reflect the actual probability of the event occurring. This can happen for several reasons:

Errors in odds modelling: Bookmakers use statistical models and algorithms to calculate odds, but these models can fail if they do not consider all relevant information.
Outdated or unknown information: If new information comes to light (e.g. an injury to a team, adverse weather conditions or tactical changes) and the bookmaker does not adjust the odds quickly, the odds may not reflect reality.
Wrong market movements: Bookmakers adjust odds based on the volume of bets they receive. If many bettors bet on an outcome without a logical reason (e.g. because of bias or because it is a popular team), the odds can be distorted.
Human error: Occasionally, bookmakers may make typographical or calculation errors when publishing live odds, leading to arbitrage opportunities or value bets.

This type of situation is what professional bettors seek to exploit with strategies such as value betting or arbitrage. In value betting, the actual odds (based on proprietary models or efficient markets) are compared with the bookmaker’s implied odds to find profitable betting opportunities over the long term. Read on, because you will see how to do this by finding the bookmakers’ mistakes.

Another key factor to take into account: liquidity.

If you really want to win at this, you must understand that bookmaker odds are not static and can be influenced by various market factors, especially liquidity and the volume of bets on particular events or outcomes. This is because bookmakers not only try to reflect the actual probability of the event, but also to balance their own financial risk. Here I explain how this is influenced:

1. Adjustment for betting volume

If a large amount of money is wagered on a specific outcome, the bookmaker will adjust the odds on that outcome downwards to limit its exposure to risk and attract bets on the other outcomes.
At the same time, it will increase the odds on opposing outcomes to encourage more bets and balance the market.

📌 Example: If a very popular team (such as Real Madrid or Manchester United) receives a lot of bets to win a match, the bookmaker will reduce the odds on their win (making it less attractive) and increase the odds on their opponents.

2. Influence of event liquidity

In events with high liquidity (such as the Champions League final or the NFL), odds tend to be more accurate because there is a lot of money on the line and markets adjust quickly.
In events with low liquidity (such as minor leagues or less popular sports), bookmakers may set more erratic odds, leaving room for mistakes and value betting opportunities.

3. Movements in Asian bookmakers and exchanges

Platforms such as BetinAsia, Pinnacle or SBOBET often act as a benchmark for odds because they allow high volume betting and adjust their prices based on supply and demand.
Traditional bookmakers usually take these movements as a reference and adjust their own odds accordingly.

4. Professional gamblers’ bets

If expert bettors or syndicates (organized groups of bettors) start moving money on a specific outcome, bookmakers may react by adjusting the odds, as they interpret that these bettors have identified real value.

How to find the best odds

Bookmakers set their odds based on algorithms, but these are not perfect. Often, during live events, bookmakers make mistakes when setting their odds, and when this happens, they may offer overestimated odds. In other words, a huge opportunity: true professional bettors know how to take advantage of these mistakes and bet on these odds to maximize their profits.

Unfortunately, these errors usually last only milliseconds, making it impossible for a human bettor to take advantage of them, as bookmakers have powerful algorithms that immediately correct any mistaken odds.

So, how can you find these odds errors in real time and have enough time to place your bets?

✅👉 The only way is to use powerful tools that scan the market, detect the errors that these betting houses make live among thousands of data points, and place bets automatically.

One of the best ways to find favorable odds is by using tools like BetOven‘s AI, which analyzes real-time differences between odds in multiple betting houses and detects the mistakes they make live. In other words, it finds surebet and valuebet opportunities and can automatically place bets on them. Watch the following video, and you’ll understand it better:

👉 BetOven is the best sports betting app on the market, and for good reason. It uses advanced artificial intelligence to detect and capitalise on errors in the odds offered by bookmakers.

This means that it is not based on statistics or luck, but on accurate detection of arbitrage opportunities, maximizing your profits without the need for human intervention.

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